Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley suspended her presidential campaign in March, but she continues to influence the Republican primaries by securing a notable share of votes against Donald Trump. Experts suggest this could signal trouble for the former president.
On Tuesday, Haley garnered 20% of the vote in Maryland, 17.9% in Nebraska, and 9.4% in West Virginia. In the Indiana primary last week, she captured 21.7% of the vote. While Trump dominated these states with 80.2% in Nebraska, 80% in Maryland, 88.4% in West Virginia, and 78.3% in Indiana, Haley’s significant support highlights ongoing resistance within the GOP.
During her campaign, Haley built a coalition of moderate and anti-Trump Republicans, which has chipped away at Trump’s substantial lead in the primaries.
As her “zombie campaign” continues to gain support, Trump might be at risk if he fails to engage the dissatisfied segment of his GOP base, potentially jeopardizing his general election prospects. This is especially crucial in a tight race where swing states could be decided by slim margins.
“Haley’s continued support after suspending her campaign suggests that a notable portion of usually loyal Republicans do not back Trump,” said Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University.
“Whether they will vote for Biden or another candidate in the general election is uncertain, but some may abstain from voting, which could hurt Trump, especially in battleground states,” he added.
How Much Danger is Trump In?
Numerous polls show Trump leading Biden in key battleground states. A recent New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer poll, conducted between April 28 and May 9, found Biden trailing Trump among registered voters by seven points in Arizona, 10 points in Georgia, 7 points in Michigan, 12 points in Nevada, and 3 points in Pennsylvania. The only state where Biden led Trump was Wisconsin, with a margin of 2 points.
Gaining a significant number of Haley’s voters could help Biden narrow the gap in the general election, particularly in metro and suburban areas where Haley’s support has been strong, said Wesley Leckrone, a political science expert at Widener University.
“If some of these voters support Biden in the fall, it could make a difference in swing states,” he said.
For instance, Haley received 25% of the vote in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which Biden won in 2020, even after she suspended her campaign. She also secured 23% of the vote in Cobb County, Georgia, which Biden also won.
“I think much of the discontent among anti-Trump Republicans is more about his style of politics and personality. Views on Trump are well-established at this point, and he continues to use the same campaign style,” Leckrone said. “It’s unlikely that will change in the coming months. Perhaps his choice of a vice-presidential candidate could help bring moderates back, but it’s doubtful.”
Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist who served as a Trump campaign surrogate in 2020, said Trump’s primary concern should be ensuring turnout among irregular and infrequent voters who favor him in battleground states rather than appealing to Haley voters.
“The most effective use of time and resources is to concentrate on a voter turnout operation in the six states that will determine this election: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania,” he said.
Can Biden Win Over Haley Voters?
It remains uncertain whether Haley’s voters will choose Biden in the general election or opt for a third-party candidate.
Biden has lost support from key groups, including young voters, Black voters, and Hispanic voters, due to his handling of issues such as the Israel-Hamas conflict and the economy.
The New York Times/Siena poll found that over 50% of respondents in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania rate current economic conditions as poor. The poll also found that only 28% of respondents ages 18 to 29 trust Biden to handle the broader Israel-Palestinian conflict, while 52% trust Trump.
Aaron Kall, a political expert at the University of Michigan, said it’s crucial for Biden to incorporate winning over Haley’s voters into his strategy.
“If there’s a ceasefire in the Middle East or if inflation declines enough for the Fed to reduce interest rates, these could help Biden attract those voters,” Kall said. “But the fact that these voters are in play and unlikely to support Trump is already a positive sign.”
